Macro Research
Weekly Macro Analysis
TrimTabs proprietary web-spidering technique collects data many times a day from several unique sources in order to provide a real-time or near-time snapshot of economic activity in the United States with a particular focus on the financial health of the U.S. Consumer. Every Tuesday, Madeline Schnapp synthesizes this data and provides conclusions on the direction of the U.S. economy. Our focus on high frequency daily data gives you as much as six weeks advance notice on the direction of the U.S. economy when compared to data from traditional government indicators. This report consolidates a number of high frequency economic indicators: sample PDF >>
- U.S. Treasury Withheld Income and Employment Taxes – a daily indicator of after-tax consumer income.
- TrimTabs Savings and Investment Flow which directly measures consumer investment flows into deposits and mutual funds.
- TrimTabs On-line Job-Posting Index
- Sentiment – AAII survey of Bullish/Bearish Sentiment
- Consumer Debt – Revolving Home Equity Loans, Mortgage Applications Composite Index, Mortgage Refinance Index, Purchase Applications Index
- Commercial Debt – Commercial & Industrial as well as Non-Financial Commercial Paper.
Employment News Flash
Published monthly on the morning of the release of the monthly U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report, this email news flash provides commentary on the validity of the government employment data. The BLS employment data is frequently inaccurate and subject to large revisions as high as 150% of the original estimate. Our special focus helps you interpret the often confusing but significant effects of revisions and seasonal adjustments that habitually underestimate or overestimate actual employment levels. By understanding the true nature of the U.S. employment situation, knowledgeable market traders have a significant edge over those traders that believe the often inaccurate and untimely government data releases. sample PDF >>
TrimTabs Consumer Spendables Indicator
The recent U.S. economic slump caught many investors flat-footed. As the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that the U.S. economy shed 17,000 jobs in January, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Index fell to a five-year low in January, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Index plummeted to a seven-year low in February, and panicked investors yanked massive amounts of cash out of U.S. equities in January and February. But the economic downturn came as no surprise to us. How did we know what flawed, lagged data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) long failed to reveal? We knew because the amount of cash American consumers have available for consumption has been growing at a lethargic rate for more than a year, and we expect it to decline this quarter on a year-over-year basis for the first time since late 2003.
The TrimTabs Consumer Spendables Indicator (TTCSI) measures the three most important sources of consumption cash in the economy:
- After-tax wages. We obtain data on after-tax wages from daily deposits of withheld income and employment taxes to the U.S. Treasury.
- After-tax income from non-wage sources. Non-wage income includes income from a variety of sources, including capital gains, dividends, interest, partnerships, pensions, rentals, self-employment, and S-corporations. We obtain data on after-tax income from non-wage sources from daily payments of "Other Income Tax Not Withheld" to the U.S. Treasury.
- Net equity extraction. This cash is generated when individuals extract equity from homes either through home sales or mortgage refinancing. We obtain data on net equity extraction from the Federal Reserve and Freddie Mac. sample PDF >>